As anticipation reaches a fever pitch ahead of the highly-publicized Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua heavyweight boxing match, a surprising trend has emerged in the betting world: the majority of bettors are backing underdog Jake Paul to upset former world champion Anthony Joshua. Despite Joshua’s overwhelming favorite status in the odds, widespread public wagering shows a significant shift toward the YouTuber-turned-boxer.
According to early data from major sportsbooks, a large portion of bets have been placed on Paul to pull off what would be one of the biggest upsets in modern boxing history. On DraftKings, Paul who enters the fight as a 7-1 underdog attracted roughly 82% of all bets and 90% of the total money wagered on the fight’s outcome. That heavy underdog support could cost sportsbooks tens of millions if Paul prevails.
At Hard Rock Bet in Florida, the betting activity is “one-way action” in favor of Paul, according to senior sportsbook executives. They noted that local interest appears to be driving a disproportionate amount of wagering on the underdog, even though Joshua remains the expected winner by most traditional metrics.
This betting pattern is mirrored internationally as well. Data from bet365 shows that approximately 86% of bettors have backed Paul to defeat Joshua, lured in by the higher odds attached to the underdog and the allure of a massive payout should he win. Despite this market enthusiasm for Paul, bookmakers still view Joshua as the likely victor, and many wager types including moneyline and method-of-victory markets favor the highly experienced British fighter.
The contrasting narratives around this fight have only added fuel to public interest. Joshua, a former two-time heavyweight champion and Olympic gold medalist, brings years of elite experience and formidable knockout power to the ring. His odds across several sportsbooks suggest he is heavily expected to win, with implied probabilities often exceeding 85%.
Meanwhile, Jake Paul’s rise from social media personality to professional boxer has been marked by controversy and curiosity. Though he has a respectable record, his resume includes wins against non-traditional boxing figures and former fighters past their prime. This has led many analysts to label the matchup a spectacle rather than a straight sporting competition. Nonetheless, Paul has embraced the role of underdog and is openly predicting a dramatic victory.
Some bettors appear motivated less by faith in Paul’s boxing ability and more by the sheer value of the underdog price. Betting markets generally offer much larger returns for underdogs, and when the public sentiment embraces an upset narrative such as Paul’s promise of a historic “David vs. Goliath” moment that can skew wagering toward the less likely outcome.
Despite the heavy wagering on Paul, sportsbooks still reflect confidence in Joshua’s chances. Odds from OddsChecker show Joshua priced significantly shorter than Paul in most markets, reinforcing that bookmakers believe a Joshua win is more probable, even if bettors are betting otherwise.
As fight night approaches, these betting patterns highlight one of the most intriguing dynamics in combat sports: how public perception, narrative and fandom can influence wagering behavior sometimes independently of statistical expectations and expert predictions. Whether this trend continues through fight night or shifts back toward Joshua will be one of the many subplots boxing fans will be watching closely.